On the 20 March 2010 the first eruption started that caused the Icelandic Ash Cloud (remember that). In that same week on 24 March 2010 the late Alaistair Darling delivered the last budget for the Labour party. By the time the eruptions finished in June 2010, Labour had lost the May 2010 general election to the Conservatives and George Osbourne had delivered his first budget. One of his measures was to increase capital gains tax rates mid-year. Surely that can’t happen again, or can it?
So what can we expect from Labour’s first budget since 2010 on 30 October 2024? Latest speculation is that the chancellor Rachel Reeves is planning £40 billion worth of tax rises and spending cuts to fill the £22 billion black hole (© current labour government) in public finances and avoid a return to austerity.
Speculation for tax rises have constantly included increased capital gains tax rates, although how much this will raise is difficult to predict. In addition, the capital gains asset cost uplift on death is also rumoured to be in the Rachel Reeves crosshairs. It is interesting to note that both of these were rumours that did the rounds under the last Conservative government.
The latest speculation is that increases in employers National Insurance contributions will be announced. This has caused much gnashing of teeth from certain quarters about broken manifesto promises. Really? Where have these people been? Living under a rock?
I am also expecting further changes to the tax regime that applies to non-UK domicile UK tax residents (not to be confused with non UK tax residents). Changes were expected from 6 April 2025 but didn’t quite make it into law before the last general election. Figures vary as to how much this will raise, however we know that as a country we are still a popular destination for both the desperate and the wealthy.